Those who wish to do additional post-processing of the existing VIC data can access the archived model output. July temperatures hover in the 90s, with several afternoons during the summer pushing the thermometer reading as high as 100 to 105 degrees. The magnitude of flooding the term used to describe flooding severity is expected to increase throughout the basin, which includes the Columbia, Willamette and Snake rivers . Daily streamflow data from the CD and HD downscaling methods are first processed to extract the peak daily flow in each water year of the simulations (91 years). In addition to creating these datasets, the RMJOC agencies worked together to adopt a set of methods for incorporating these data into those longer-term planning activities. In this section we provide an overview of the methods associated with the primary elements of the CBCCSP. hb```"V* aB@{= ,!It#GjWeyP1% 7). Treaty Relating to Cooperative Development of the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin, United States of AmericaCanada, January 17, 1961September 16, 1964, 15 U.S.T. Produced by, Clean Energy and Green Building Major Projects, Private and public sector clean energy and green building construction projects valued at $15M or more for the 3rd quarter of each year. The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of other members of the CBCCSP research team at the UW including Lara Whitely Binder, Pablo Carrasco, Jeffrey Deems, Carrie Lee, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Tyler Kamstra, Jeremy Littell, Nathan Mantua, Edward Miles, Kristian Mickelson, Philip W. Mote, Erin Rogers, Eric Salath, Amy Snover, and Andrew Wood. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. UW Hydro | Columbia River Climate Change - Home For information on past projects, see our Projects Archive. Simulated widespread increases in soil moisture recharge in fall and winter in areas with significant snow accumulation in winter (for the current climate) support hypotheses of increased landslide risk and sediment transport in winter in the future. Climate Change Scientific and Technical Resources - CRITFC The same procedure is followed for estimating extreme low flows, except the lowest 7-day flow is extracted for each water year, and 7Q10 (the extreme 7-day low flow with a return interval of 10 years) is estimated. A detailed climate change assessment report was prepared by the CIG for Seattle City Light (Snover et al., Citation2010) based primarily on the CBCCSP database. Other climate change studies on the Columbia River and its sub-basins followed (Cohen, Miller, Hamlet, & Avis, Citation2000; Elsner et al., Citation2010; Hamlet, Citation2003, Citation2011; Hamlet, Lee, Mickelson, & Elsner, Citation2010b; Lee, Fitzgerald, Hamlet, & Burges, Citation2011; Lee, Hamlet, Fitzgerald, & Burges, Citation2009; NWPCC, Citation2005; Payne, Wood, Hamlet, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Snover, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). Instead our primary goal was to encompass the approximate range of all available scenarios while reducing costs by downscaling projections from a subset of the larger group of 20 GCMs (Hamlet et al., 2010a). 3 Summary map of 80 streamflow locations (out of a total of 297) for which error statistics between simulated and naturalized flows were computed. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA, Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios, Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California, Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study, Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Naturalized streamflow data were used exclusively in the CBCCSP to calibrate the hydrologic model. An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climat . : From Icefield to Estuary: The Columbia Basin / Du champ de glace l'estuaire : Le bassin du Columbia, 6 Use of products and information by stakeholders, water professionals, and researchers, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2013.819555, http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00417.1, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/products/sites/, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2715:IMOET>2.0.CO;2, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/report/, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2002)128:2(91), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1999)125:6(333), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:6(440), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2313:SOTEHS>2.0.CO;2, http://cses.washington.edu/picea/USFS/pub/Littell_etal_2010/Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2, http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/5/, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2, http://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=39123, http://www.usbr.gov/pn/programs/climatechange/reports/index.html, http://www.fws.gov/landscape-conservation/lcc.html, http://www.ecy.wa.gov/biblio/1112011.html, Medicine, Dentistry, Nursing & Allied Health, Simulated daily evapotranspiration from all sources, actual evaporation from all sources (canopy evaporation, evaporation from bare soil, transpiration, and snow sublimation), natural vegetation, no water limit, but no vegetation stomatal resistance, Extreme 7-day low flow value with a 10-year recurrence interval. Both floods (Q100) and extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) increase in intensity for most of the river sites simulated. These basins experience dramatic losses of snowpack and substantial changes in seasonal flow timing (Fig. Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Dave Rodenhuis, Markus Schnorbus, Arelia Werner, and Katrina Bennett at PCIC at the University of Victoria, British Columbia, also provided in-kind support and funding for collaborative research which contributed materially to this project. Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower, Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State, Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals, Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River basin, Long-range climate forecasting and its use for water management in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America, Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S, Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S, Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western U.S, An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature, Optimized flood control in the Columbia River basin for a global warming scenario, Methodology for developing flood rule curves conditioned on El Nio-Southern Oscillation classification, Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario, Improving water resources system performance through long-range climate forecasts: The Pacific Northwest experience (Chapter 7), Water resources implications of global warming, a U.S. regional perspective, Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin, A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. Thursday Sunny. Gridded databases providing full GIS coverage of important hydrometeorological variables in support of a wide range of research applications, including ecosystem research. These include the full meteorological forcings for the model (variables 18), a suite of water balance variables simulated by the model (variables 916), and five different PET metrics (variables 1721) (Elsner et al., Citation2010). Funding was received by WSU to carry out research quantifying crop water demand, water resources system performance, and economic impacts under current climate conditions and a range of future climate scenarios. Each of the six panels in the figure shows the long-term monthly mean for the 10 (9 for B1) HD GCM scenarios (red lines) and the historical simulations (blue lines). RSUM[Traduit par la rdaction] Le projet de scnarios de changement climatique du bassin du Columbia (CBCCSP) a t conu comme une base de donnes hydrologiques complte pour appuyer les activits de planification, dvaluation des rpercussions et d'adaptation dans la rgion pacifique nordouest menes par une communaut d'utilisateurs diversifie disposant de capacits techniques varies dans une large gamme dchelles spatiales. Confirming the sensitivity to warming demonstrated in earlier studies, the CBCCSP results show widespread reductions in the 1 April snowpack, and systematic reductions in the long-term average SWE2PR, a measure of the importance of snow in the hydrologic cycle (Fig. A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). Over the last several years, the USFS and USFWS have engaged with the CIG to produce a set of initial climate change hydrologic scenarios over much of the west using a common methodology intended to support landscape-scale assessment of climate change impacts (Littell et al., Citation2011). Naturalized and modified streamflow data were used to produce bias-corrected streamflow realizations (see below). 12). Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Ten GCM projections for the A1B scenario and nine projections for the B1 scenario (Table 1) were selected based on a ranking of the GCMs reflecting the combined ability of each GCM to reproduce key features of PNW climate variability, including the seasonal cycle of precipitation, observed trends in temperature in the late twentieth century, bias in reproducing historical temperature and precipitation, and ability to capture key features of observed climate variability (spatial patterns of temperature, pressure, and precipitation) over the North Pacific (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). Des accroissements gnraliss simuls de la rhumidification du sol en automne et en hiver dans les secteurs o l'accumulation de neige en hiver est importante (sous le climat actuel) appuient les hypothses de risque accru de glissement de terrain et de transport de sdiments durant l'hiver dans le futur. 8) and warmer and drier summers (which increase PET) (Fig. In much of the CRB, however, summer AET is water limited (i.e., there is abundant surface energy to evaporate whatever water is available), and changes in AET are dominated by decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios, which effectively decreases summer AET in most cases. Although results from the WACCIA would arguably have been adequate to support WDOE's adaptation planning, the CBCCSP provided additional foundation support for these efforts, and helped improve confidence in the outcomes of the adaptation strategies identified by better quantifying a range of outcomes. 2013b. 1990 level modified streamflow 19281989. A comprehensive assessment of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10. Thus, each site is bias-corrected using either naturalized or modified flow but not both. Future of Aquatic Flows in the South Central U.S.: Toward Sustainable Full knowledge of the preceding steps is not required to use the products obtained at any level of the study, which increases the utility of the products. The magnitude of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10 are expected to shift markedly in some basins in response to cool season warming, increasing cool season precipitation, and warmer, drier summers. The state of Oregon, for example, is classified as about 75% mixed-rain-and-snow for the twentieth century climate. Isaak DJ et al. They found that the vast majority of locations across the Columbia River Basin are expected to experience increases in maximum streamflow magnitudes in the future. These data are summarized in figures and tables prepared for each streamflow site discussed in Section 4. Gridded meteorological datasets (daily total precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperature) at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 7km by 5km) were constructed for the study from observed station records for the period 1915 to 2006. Sites without modified or natural flow estimates are shown in yellow. From ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, to our way of lifeeverything will be affected. Source: #! O The CBCCSP was founded on the basis of regional partnerships to support a shared need for climate change scenarios and directly encompassed the transboundary nature of the CRB's management framework by including both US and Canadian interests in an integrated and comprehensive data resource. Explore the basics of climate science arrow . What Makes The Columbia River Basin Unique and How We Benefit As noted above, such errors are commonly encountered at relatively small spatial scales, particularly when meteorological stations are sparse, and often cannot be resolved using conventional hydrologic model calibration strategies.
Grey Nomads Looking For Accommodation,
Oxford Plains Speedway Memories,
Andrew Luft Obituary,
Articles C